APVV - DETECTIVES

Regional detection, attribution and projection of impacts of climate variability
and climate change on runoff regimes in Slovakia 

Rich physiographic conditions in Slovakia result in regionally different runoff regimes driven by climate variability and impacted by climatic and socioeconomic changes in the recent past. The first scientific goal of project is therefore to develop and apply a set of approaches for the detection and attribution changes in the past hydrological regime with annual, monthly and daily temporal resolution. Detection will be based on new methods going beyond standard statistics (trend and breakpoint analysis, correlation analysis, etc.) using approaches such as nonlinear time series models and copula function based dependence structures. Attribution with the use of rainfall runoff modelling will attempt to distinguish anthropogenic factors (as land-use change) and signals of a changing climate. Recent climate change projections in Slovakia do not allow for a comprehensive assessment of impacts on the water regime. The second goal is to develop new projections of future climate and hydrology including uncertainty assessment with the aim to gain new insights into the uncertainties of future regime changes in hydrometeorological processes in Slovakia. Comparison of regime changes from the instrumental period and the projections will serve adaptation measures in water management.